Hot air or grave warning? Scientific report prompts talk of catastrophic ‘volcano season’

A volcanic eruption with the potential to “return humanity to a pre-civilization state” could happen within the next 80 years, according to a study by the European Science Foundation. Have we now heard the last argument in the debate the study triggered?

Authors of the Extreme Geohazards: Reducing the Disaster Risk and Increasing Resilience say the threat from low-probability, high impact disasters is being “grossly underestimated”.

Yellowstone about to blow? Scientists warning over SUPER-VOLCANO that could … — https://t.co/krXaIMWuwJ : https://t.co/3qTTqL3STA

— Volcano Alert (@VolcanoAlert) 6 января 2016

Presented to the European Geosciences Union General Assembly last April, the study looks at the extreme impacts of natural hazards like earthquakes, tsunamis, extreme weather and volcanoes.

It states that “extreme volcanic eruptions pose a higher associated risk than all other natural hazards” including asteroid impacts.

But it’s the mention of a centuries old super volcano in Indonesia that has people questioning whether the world’s population is about to be annihilated in a cloud of ash and molten lava in the not too distant future.

The report appears to indicate there is 5-10 percent chance of large scale volcanic activity happening before the end of the century.

The probability is mentioned in a section on significant volcanic eruptions, like the Lake Toba eruption 74,000 years ago, and the 1815 Tambora eruptions during the current Holocene period.

It has led to numerous reports that the earth is in the midst of a volatile ‘volcano season’ – a ‘ticking time bomb’ period that could see supervolcanoes in places like Yellowstone National Park, Wyoming erupt and kill millions.

However, there are questions over whether "volcano season" really exists outside the world of catchy headline writing.

While the geohazard study acknowledges large volcanic eruptions “have the potential to trigger global disaster and catastrophe”, ESF scientists make no mention of “volcano season” and only reference “supervolcanic” activity once in a table showing eruption classification.

There is also no specific prediction of Yellowstone blowing its lid.