China ties on the line as Taiwan votes for new president

Taiwan looks set on Saturday to elect an independence-leaning opposition leader as its first woman president who could usher in a new round of uncertainty with China, the massive neighbor that claims the self-ruled island as its sacred territory.

Tsai Ing-wen, leader of the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP), is expected to be thrust into one of Asia's toughest and most dangerous jobs, with China pointing hundreds of missiles at the island, decades after losing Nationalists (KMT) fled from Mao Zedong's Communists to Taiwan in the Chinese civil war.

    She will have to balance the superpower interests of China, which is also Taiwan's largest trading partner, and the United States with those of her freewheeling, democratic home.

    Tsai risks antagonizing China if she attempts to forcefully assert Taiwan's sovereignty and reverses eight years of warming China ties under incumbent President Ma Ying-jeou of the Nationalists, who retreated to Taiwan in 1949.

"I had a good sleep last night. We've done the best we could. We're leaving today to the hands of the voters," Tsai told reporters after she cast her vote early at a ballot station near her home on the outskirts of the capital Taipei.

Taiwan’s ruling Nationalist Kuomintang Party (KMT) chairman Eric Chu (R) and his wife Kao Wan-ching cast their ballots in New Taipei city, Taiwan, January 16, 2016. REUTERS/Hsieh Chia-chang/Pool

In a statement carried by state media, China's Taiwan Affairs Office repeated it would not get involved in the election, saying only that it was "paying attention to across the Taiwan Strait".

The election comes at a tricky time for Taiwan's export-dependent economy, which slipped into recession in the third quarter last year. China is also Taiwan's top trading partner and Taiwan's favorite investment destination.

Taiwan president Ma Ying-jeou casts his ballots in Taipei, Taiwan, January 16, 2016. REUTERS/Stringer

Taiwan’s Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) Chairperson and presidential candidate Tsai Ing-wen talks to the media after casting her ballot at a polling station during general elections in New Taipei, Taiwan, January 16, 2016. REUTERS/Olivia Harris

"During the past years under the Ma Ying-jeou administration, Taiwan's economy didn't get better but deteriorated instead. People think he has been getting too close to China," said Deng Chia-ling, 40, a housewife.

"My entire family supports Tsai Ing-wen. We have high hopes she will lead Taiwan going forward."

Support for the DPP has swelled since 2014, when hundreds of students occupied Taiwan's parliament for weeks in the largest display of anti-China sentiment the island had seen in years.

"I'm not afraid of China. We are a democratic country, and it's China who should learn from us," said a 70-year-old farmer who only gave his surname Chen, queuing at a voting station in rural Yilan, a county east of the capital.

"This election is vital to us as we need to maintain our sovereignty. The new president would take us one step forward."

The election results should start coming out after 6 pm local time (1000 GMT).

A voter casts her ballot at a polling station during general elections in New Taipei City, Taiwan January 16, 2016. REUTERS/Olivia Harris

A voter casts his ballot at a polling station during general elections in New Taipei City, Taiwan January 16, 2016. REUTERS/Pichi Chuang

FIRST WOMAN PRESIDENT FOR TAIWAN

    Tsai has the tide of history against her. Ma and his predecessors all failed to bring about a lasting reconciliation with China, which considers Taiwan a rogue province to be taken by force if necessary.

Shots were traded between the two sides as recently as the mid-1970s.

Voters queue next to a poster of candidates to cast their ballots at a polling station during general elections in New Taipei City, Taiwan January 16, 2016. REUTERS/Pichi Chuang

    At stake are relations with an ascendant and increasingly assertive China under President Xi Jinping.

    Tsai, a lawyer, will get an even stronger mandate if the DPP wins parliamentary polls which were also being held on Saturday.

Voters queue to cast their ballots at a polling station during general elections in New Taipei City, Taiwan January 16, 2016. REUTERS/Pichi Chuang

Supporters of Taiwan’s Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) react as the chairperson and presidential candidate Tsai Ing-wen addresses the crowd during a final campaign rally ahead of the elections in Taipei, Taiwan, January 15, 2016. REUTERS/Damir Sagolj

She has been ambiguous on her China policy, merely pledging, in public anyway, to maintain the status quo.

Beijing has warned repeatedly that hard-earned peace across the Taiwan Strait could be affected by a Tsai win.

The United States has expressed concerns about the danger of worsening China-Taiwan ties, at a time when China's navy is increasingly flexing its muscles in the South China and East China Seas and expanding territorial claims.

China has held out the "one country, two systems" formula, under which the British colony of Hong Kong returned to China in 1997, as a solution for Taiwan. But both the Nationalists and DPP have rejected the idea.

Taiwan’s Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) Chairperson and presidential candidate Tsai Ing-wen waves from the stage during a final campaign rally ahead of the elections in Taipei, Taiwan, January 15, 2016. REUTERS/Damir Sagolj

A man shows his support for the ruling Nationalist Kuomintang Party (KMT) chairman Eric Chu during a campaign rally a day before the election in New Taipei City, Taiwan January 15, 2016. REUTERS/Olivia Harris

A woman shows her support for the ruling Nationalist Kuomintang Party (KMT) chairman Eric Chu during a campaign rally a day before the election in New Taipei City, Taiwan January 15, 2016. REUTERS/Olivia Harris

Taiwan’s ruling Nationalist Kuomintang Party (KMT) chairman Eric Chu (L) and his wife Kao Wan-ching greet supporters as they arrive for a campaign rally a day before the election in New Taipei City, Taiwan January 15, 2016. REUTERS/Olivia Harris

Supporters of Taiwan’s Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) wait for the chairperson and presidential candidate Tsai Ing-wen to take the stage during a final campaign rally ahead of the elections in Taipei, Taiwan, January 15, 2016. REUTERS/Damir Sagolj

A tear runs down the cheek of a supporter of Taiwan’s Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) before the chairperson and presidential candidate Tsai Ing-wen to takes the stage during a final campaign rally ahead of the elections in Taipei, January 15, 2016. REUTERS/Damir Sagolj

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