VLADIMIR Putin is poised to abandon his long-standing relationship with Syrian President Bashar al-Assad, Western diplomats believe.
Negotiators locked in peace talks believe the Russian president's shock decision to withdraw troops from war-ravaged Syria suggests he could be prepared to force Assad to step down.
Russia's military campaign – which Putin has hailed as a "mission accomplished" – had reportedly focused on attacking terror groups such as ISIS and is thought to have tipped the balance of power in Assad's favour.
The departure of the controversial dictator is said to be a "red line" for Western governments attempting to broker an end to the country's six-year civil war.
Putin's surprise move comes as fresh peace talks begin in Geneva – but defence experts have warned much of Russia's vast military infrastructure in the region will remain.
Its air force will maintain a base at Hmeymim, on the Syrian coast, while a naval facility at nearby Tartus will continue to operate.
Western diplomats are nonetheless said to be cautiously optimistic that Putin will back a settlement that sees Assad's 16-year reign come to an end.
One said: "The Russians know that he's a destabilising force.
"If there's going to be a peaceful transition, he ain't staying."
A ceasefire between the Syrian government and non-jihadist rebel groups has lasted more than two weeks and commentators have claimed that the withdrawal of Russian troops points to a serious attempt to end the fighting
US Secretary of State John Kerry said peace efforts had indeed reached "a very important phase".
The official Syrian opposition said it had to "wait and see" before taking Putin's announcement seriously – but several of its delegates in Geneva reportedly cried with happiness when news reached their hotel.
The UN intend for democratic elections to be held in Syria within 18 months – but it remains unclear whether negotiators will reach their target.