First Take: History is now on Donald Trump’s side

Donald Trump won the South Carolina primary with one-third of the total vote. After thanking his supporters, Trump called for a big win in Nevada. VPC

Donald Trump may be a presidential candidate who is almost without precedent, but history is now on his side.

The billionaire businessman who has never sought public office before scored a decisive win in the South Carolina primary Saturday night, solidifying his standing as the unlikely front-runner who is now on a path to claim the Republican presidential nomination in July. The first-place finish came on the heels of a near-record victory in the New Hampshire primary earlier this month.

Since the South Carolina contest moved up on the political calendar in 1980, no Republican has carried both New Hampshire and South Carolina and then failed to win the nomination. Two of those three predecessors, Ronald Reagan and George H.W. Bush, went on to win the White House.

"Let's have a big win in Nevada," Trump told a triumphant victory rally, congratulating Texas Sen. Ted Cruz and Florida Sen. Marco Rubio. "Let's put this thing away."

Cruz and Rubio were battling for second place. The two first-term, Cuban-American, 40-something senators each hope eventually to emerge as the alternative to real-estate magnate, setting up a head-to-head contest that might consolidate the majority of voters who don't now back Trump.

Trump mocked that suggestion from pundits. "They don't understand that as people drop out, I'm going to get a lot of those votes also," he said.

The real-estate magnate once again won a broad-based victory, including finishing first among the evangelical Christians who made up nearly three-fourths of the South Carolina GOP electorate. He finished first among those who cited the economy and jobs as their top concern, those who cited immigration, and those who cited terrorism. (Cruz finished first among those who named government spending.)

And Trump won after a series of skirmishes in recent days that might have undone a typical candidate, including public skirmishes with both former president George W. Bush (a popular figure here) and Pope Francis.

Initially dismissed by the political pros, Trump has proved to have shrewd political instincts and a message that perfectly fits the anger of many voters. In surveys of voters by Edison Research as they left polling places, a majority said they felt "betrayed" by politicians in their own party. Nine in 10 were angry or dissatisfied with the way the federal government is working.

And nearly half said they were looking for a candidate outside the political establishment. Trump was the choice of six in 10 of those voters.

The contest now heads to the Nevada Republican caucuses next Tuesday and the Super Tuesday contests in a dozen states on March 1. Trump's proven appeal — and the fact that Cruz and Rubio almost certainly will stay in the race and divide the vote against him — should set up friendly political terrain for the former reality-TV star.

If there is a continuing race with three contenders doing relatively well, it increases the possibility that none of them arrive at the Republican National Convention in Cleveland with enough delegates to clinch the nomination on the first vote. That raises the possibility of the first contested GOP convention in more than three decades.

There will be important tests of Trump's ability to put away his two strongest remaining rivals over the next few weeks: Can he defeat Cruz in his home state of Texas on March 1? What about Rubio in his home state of Florida on March 15?

While both Cruz and Rubio put the best face on their finishes, both faced disappointments. Cruz counted on support from evangelical Christians, but Trump edged ahead of him among those voters. Rubio had the endorsements of the state's top Republican officeholders, including Gov. Nikki Haley, Sen. Tim Scott and Rep. Trey Gowdy, and he was the top choice of those who said they decided in the past week. But Rubio was locked in a close race with Cruz.

In his election night speech to supporters, Rubio called South Carolina a place of "new beginnings and fresh starts."

Cruz praised the evening's "extraordinary results" without specifying exactly what they were.

Meanwhile, former Florida governor Jeb Bush, who started the GOP race with the highest name recognition and the most money, announced he was suspending his campaign after failing once again to break into the top three finishers. He was facing questions, including from his contributors, about why his campaign should continue.

"I congratulate my competitors that are remaining on the island," Bush told supporters, his voice breaking with emotion. He didn't mention any of them by name.